|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AXIOS ADVISORS, LLC INDEPENDENT CREDIT RESEARCH REPORT LIBRARY
|
Go To: Tobacco Bonds |
|
|
|
|
Updated: July 15, 2004 |
|
|
|
Date |
State |
Credit |
Issuer |
CUSIP |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOBACCO |
|
TICKER/CUSIP |
|
05/12/04 |
|
Tobacco Bond Strategy Update
Tobacco bond prices fell following a wholesale downgrading by Moody’s. Is current concern over the Freedom Holdings case justified, or do recent price declines represent an over reaction to the news? |
|
|
|
04/23/04 |
|
Tobacco Bond Strategy Update
Tobacco bond prices fell following a wholesale downgrading by Moody’s. Is current concern over the Freedom Holdings case justified, or do recent price declines represent an over reaction to the news? |
|
|
|
09/30/03 |
CA |
State of California Enhanced Tobacco Settlement We have assigned a rating of “BBB” to the Series 2003B bonds with a “stable” trend, based primarily on the security enhancement provided by the “annual appropriation” pledge from the State of CA. Recent legal developments have also been more positive for the tobacco sector, which further strengthens the double-barreled nature of the security (at least until the next major litigation headline.) |
Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp. |
38122N |
|
09/17/03 |
|
Tobacco Bond Strategy Update The IL Supreme Court has, in a surprising move, reinstated the reduced $6.8 billion appeal bond in the Miles case and also agreed to hear Philip Morris' appeal of the case. This has sparked a significant rally in both tobacco and tobacco settlement bonds. Is this new euphoria warranted or is this just another gyration in this very volatile sector? |
|
|
|
08/29/03 |
|
Tobacco Bond Strategy Update Will PM USA do a strategic bankruptcy a la Texaco?. If so, what might be the implications for the tobacco bond sector? We look at various market scenarios and related investment strategies. |
|
|
|
08/01/03 |
|
British American Tobacco plc BAT is probably the best-positioned among the Big Four tobacco companies: we rate it the same as Altria, but without the constant threat of bankruptcy from management! At this time, the MSA is not a big factor to BAT, and vice-versa. However, a potential acquisition of R.J. Reynolds could change this picture dramatically... |
|
BAT |
|
07/15/03 |
|
Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update The IL appeals court has reinstated the original $12 billion bonding requirement, but with a 30 day stay. Will PM USA do a strategic bankruptcy a la Texaco?. |
|
MO |
|
07/10/03 |
|
Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update Legal uncertainties returned to the tobacco sector as an IL appeals court agreed to hear plaintiff's appeal of the trial court's reduction of PM USA's bond to $6.8 billion in the Price case. Will we see a repeat of the April debacle? |
|
MO |
|
06/13/03 |
NY |
New York State Tobacco Settlement New York State put its "moral obligation" pledge behind this tobacco issue. We examine the security structure and rate the bonds in the context of the State's G.O. credit. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
88880T |
|
05/19/03 |
|
R .J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Lacking MO's diversified revenue base, RJR has full exposure to the financial and legal woes of the domestic tobacco industry. Understanding its financial outlook is a critical step in determining the creditworthiness of the tobacco bond sector. |
|
RJR |
|
4/25/03 |
|
SPECIAL REPORT: "What's Next For Tobacco Settlement Bonds?" It is fair to say that the fledgling tobacco settlement sector (indeed, the entire municipal market) dodged a huge bullet on April 14th when Judge Byron from Madison County, Illinois agreed to reduce Philip Morris’ appeal bond by 50% to $6 billion. The following day, State Treasurers across the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief when Philip Morris (MO) finally made its annual payment to the States under the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). Clearly, the events of the last two weeks marked a turning point for both the tobacco sector and for State and local government finances. In this report, we take a look ahead and try to figure out what the latest developments might mean for the sector. |
|
|
|
4/15/03 |
|
Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update It came down to the wire but it appears Altria has successfully dodged the appeal bond bullet. Yesterday (4/14), the company got the bond reduced to about $6 billion, with relatively little cash impact. We update our credit opinion in light of this latest development. |
|
MO |
|
03/24/03 |
VA |
Virginia Tobacco Settlement The tobacco bond sector ran into strong headwinds this week. Headline litigation risk has increased significantly. The $10.1 billion ruling against Altria in the Miles case drives the point home. How does this affect the outlook for the sector? How does this VA issue stack up against previous tobacco issues? |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
88880N |
|
3/19/03 |
|
Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) The Altria Group (MO), formerly Phillip Morris, is a study in contrasts. It is a very large, stable, consumer products business with strong profit margins and great credit strength. At the same time, the company’s tobacco business exposes it to significant short and long-term credit risks, primarily event risk from smoking and health related litigation. This week, the market was shocked by the recent re-filing of the 1999 Federal case seeking $289 billion from cigarette-makers. We assign a rating and review the outlook for this credit, as it relates to the Master Settlement Agreement with the States. |
|
MO |
|
03/06/03 |
WI |
Badger (Wisconsin) Tobacco Settlement Much has transpired in the tobacco arena since Wisconsin opened the supply floodgate last May. We update the credit and assess its relative value versus the more recent issues, particularly in light of the State's plan to tender the bonds. |
Badger, Tobacco Asset Sec. Corp. |
056559 |
|
03/05/03 |
|
SPECIAL REPORT: "Top Ten Myths About Tobacco Bonds" |
|
|
|
03/01/03 |
NJ |
New Jersey Tobacco Settlement On the heels of the Golden State issue, record spreads were required by the market to absorb this second tobacco installment from New Jersey. If you've been keeping your powder dry in this sector, is this the time to participate? If you already own tobacco bonds, what is the outlook for the sector? We analyze the risks, assign an independent rating to the bonds and assess their relative value. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
888808 |
|
01/17/03 |
CA |
State of California Tobacco Settlement The combination of credit worries, rising supply and tax reform uncertainty is weighing heavily on the muni market. As a result, this issue set a new high water mark in yield for a high grade name. For the individual investor, this should present an attractive income opportunity. As usual, we assign our own rating to the bonds and pick out the most attractive maturities. |
Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp. |
38122NA |
|
10/28/02 |
WA |
Washington Tobacco Settlement The relentless
supply of tobacco bonds is starting to create indigestion in the muni
market. The State of WA has been forced to pay historically high rates for
its deal. For the individual investor, this should present an attractive
income opportunity. |
Tobacco Settlement Authority |
88880MAH4 88880MAJ0 |
|
8/22/02 |
NJ |
New Jersey Tobacco Settlement This tobacco offering from the State of New Jersey set a new size record for the tobacco settlement sector. We analyze key credit features and point out which bond maturity represents the best value in our opinion. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
888808AR3 888808AS1 888808AT9 |
|
7/08/02 |
CA |
Pooled Tobacco Settlement Even though all tobacco issues generally share the same credit features, local issues such as this one are subject to additional risk factors. We assign our own rating to the issue and pick out the best relative value among the various maturities. |
CA Statewide Financing Auth. |
130923APO |
|
7/01/02 |
RI |
Rhode Island Tobacco Settlement While all tobacco-settlement issues at the State level share essentially the same credit characteristics, we demonstrate why a multi-tiered market will develop in this sector. |
Tobacco Settlement Fin. Corp. |
888809AA8 |
|
5/21/02 |
WI |
Badger /Wisconsin Tobacco Settlement Even though all tobacco settlement issues essentially share the same credit features, we show why bonds issued by the so-called Previously Settled States should rank senior to all other tobacco deals. |
Badger, Tobacco Asset Sec. Corp. |
056559AJ6 |
|
|
|
SPECIAL PURPOSE/CORPORATE BACKEDCORPORA |
TICKER/CUSIP |
|
05/11/04 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System Update We comment on Hillcrest’s agreement to merge with Ardent Health Services, a deal that would result in the repurchase of Hillcrest’s outstanding bonds at par. |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
|
05/10/04 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System Update Bonds are up about 10 points since our October “buy” call. The rating agencies are unmoved by some signs of internal financial improvement and potentially positive external events. We reiterate our “speculative buy” recommendation. |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
|
04/30/04 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group Update
Axios recommended purchase of the bonds at a spread of 245 in September 2003. In light of FY2003 and Q1 FY2004 results, and a rally in the bonds, we review the Grouc’s prospects. Is there any more value in the bonds |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
|
04/08/04 |
FL |
Miami Mt Sinai Medical Center Update
What’s changed since our June 2003 credit quality upgrade and “buy” recommendation? Plenty. We revisit Mt. Sinai as it prepares for a major debt refunding and faces an SEC investigation. |
Miami Beach, FL Health Facilities Auth. |
593211BF1 593211BG9 593211BH7 |
|
03/24/04 |
CA |
San Joaquin & Foothill/Eastern Toll Roads With ratings heading south and the proposed merger of these two projects still up in the air, we update our analysis of the financial and operating performance of the toll roads and review prospects for a successful merger. |
San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency |
345105
798111 |
|
03/15/04 |
|
Georgia-Pacific and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Update
The bonds have reached our target spread. We note potential short-term positives, and comment on rating agency reaction to GP’s deleveraging efforts. |
|
GP |
|
02/18/04 |
VA |
Pocahontas Parkway Toll Road Update Bond spreads continued to widen for a few months after we initiated coverage in October 2002, but have tightened significantly over the past year. Traffic and revenue have not met expectations. We downgrade our independent credit rating, and comment on the bonds’ value in light of the current market enthusiasm. |
Pocahontas Parkway Assn |
73029MAH8 |
|
02/11/04 |
KY AL |
Weyerhaeuser Update
WY Q4 2003 earnings disappointed the street. We affirm our BBB- rating on senior unsecured debt is affirmed, comment on potential rating agency action, and update our relative value opinion |
Perry County, KY
Camden, AL IDB |
714562AC
132661AB |
|
02/06/04 |
FL LA |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control Update We update our view of the bonds following the company’s announcement that it intends to sell off merchant power plants and refocus on its core business. |
Hillsborough Co., FL IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal |
432320 727524 |
|
02/04/04 |
CA |
CA Dept of Water Resources, Power Supply Update
We maintain our high BBB rating, comment on market action since issuance and identify spreads that mark attractive buy and sell points. |
State of California Dept of Water Resources |
13066Y |
|
01/22/04 |
|
Continental Airlines Corp. and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Update
Following CAL's Q4 earnings report, we discuss the company’s earnings prospects. Is it still a “hold”? |
City of Houston
New Jersey EDA |
442348
64578C |
|
10/15/03 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System The Hillcrest HealthCare System has had a troubled financial history over the past five years. After the Series 1999 came to market in March 1999 as a Baa2/BBB+ credit, the System’s financial results took a nosedive from 1999 to 2001. This culminated in a going concern qualification in the 2001 audit. In the process, the rating agencies also took their ratings all the way down to the “B” level. Fortunately, recent financials point to some degree of stabilization and, hopefully, to the beginning of a turnaround. Is there value in the bonds currently? |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
|
09/26/03 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group Axios rated Caritas Christi (CC) “BBB-“ with a “negative” outlook in May because of challenges facing the Obligated Group, the region and healthcare providers generally. At the time, we felt there was a real potential for the credit to slip down to below-investment grade. That threat has now been dissipated somewhat. Is the credit still a good relative value? |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
|
09/19/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update TXU is in the market again with a new $148 MM remarketing. We have revised the credit outlook to "positive" from "stable" in light of the recent financial stabilization. |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
|
09/03/03 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update Nevada Power and its parent Sierra Pacific lost the Enron case last week (8/28/03). Will this lead to another bankruptcy threat, similar to what happened last year? |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
|
08/08/03 |
SC TX |
Celanese A.G. and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Celanese’s (CZ) credit quality benefits from its leadership position in major product lines, its geographic and product diversity, and management’s willingness to limit debt to a level that supports investment grade credit ratings. Yet, these strengths are offset by uncertainty regarding the economic outlook for North America and Western Europe and CZ’s weak earning power. We examine the credit outlook and assess the relative attractiveness of tax-exempt issues backed by CZ. |
York County, SC Bay City, TX |
986460AS 735003AA |
|
08/08/03 |
|
UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update We review UAL's Q2 results and the progress of its reorganization efforts. We also update in details the Special Facilities bonds issued for Denver, Indianapolis and Chicago and assess their current relative values. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 13077YAL0 455254DA7 |
|
07/28/03 |
CA |
State of California Strategy Update With the recent S&P downgrade to "BBB", California belongs now to the "high yield" category. We examine various trading strategies in light of the recall election and the upcoming deficit financings. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
07/24/03 |
FL TX |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control Our rating differential between TECO and Tampa Electric continues to be tighter than for the rating agencies. In other words, we rate TECO’s debt higher and Tampa Electric’s debt lower than most of the rating agencies. At this time, there is a real possibility S&P will over-react to the slow pace of asset sales and downgrade Tampa Electric’s senior unsecured debt to low BBB or even possibly to below-investment grade. We update our opinion on the Hillsborough, FL and Plaquemines, LA issues. |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal
|
432320 727524
|
|
07/17/03 |
TX NJ |
Continental Airlines Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Following CAL's Q2 earnings report, we re-affirm the credit as "B"/Stable and continue to recommend it as our preferred "Speculative Buy" in this very depressed industry. |
City of Houston New Jersey EDA |
442348 64578C |
|
07/08/03 |
|
Weyerhaeuser We continue to rate WY's senior unsecured debt "BBB-" but have changed the outlook from "Stable" to "Negative", reflecting weaker than expected economic and industry conditions since the Willamette acquisition. |
|
WY |
|
07/01/03 |
|
Georgia-Pacific: Asbestos Fund Legislation Update The prospect for passage of Federal asbestos legislation improved significantly last week. We bring you up-to-date on the latest details and what they might mean for companies such as GP. |
|
GP |
|
06/24/03 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update Nevada Power and its parent Sierra Pacific continue to face both near-term and longer-term financial and regulatory challenges. We review full-year 2002 financials and update the credit outlook for the next 2 quarters, particularly in light of the upcoming FERC decision on the Western states power crisis. |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
|
06/17/03 |
|
The Axios Income Investor, May-June 2003 Topics covered: Market outlook; Relative value of municipals; The new "yield" sectors: pension bonds and tobacco bonds; Corporate-backed munis: a tax-efficient back door into the corporate bond market; Best and worst relative values. |
|
|
|
06/16/03 |
FL |
Miami Mt Sinai Medical Center Update We have upgraded our rating on the 2001 Series A to “BB+” from “BB-“ with a ”stable” trend, based on full year results for 2002. The new management team, led by CEO Steve Sonenreich and CFO Alex Mendez, has largely been successful in stabilizing the financial operations of Mt Sinai Medical Center (MSMC). What challenges still lay ahead? Are the bonds still a good value, given their dramatic outperformance since our initial recommendation last September? |
Miami Beach, FL Health Facilities Auth. |
593211BF1 593211BG9 593211BH7 |
|
06/04/03 |
|
Calpine Corp. As we predicted in our initial report dated 05/06/03, Calpine’s unsecured paper peaked in early May and have consistently fallen since. The recent downgrade by S&P from “B+” to “CCC+” , coupled with the Company’s need to successfully renegotiate $1 billion of credit lines, probably contributed to the recent price weakness. Is the worst over for Calpine? |
|
CPN |
|
5/30/03 |
CA |
San Joaquin & Foothill/Eastern Toll Roads With the recent downgrade by S&P to "BB", the San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency has officially joined the list of many other troubled toll roads around the country. Will the proposed merger with the marginally more successful Foothill/Eastern Agency bail out San Joaquin? We review both San Joaquin and Foothill credits side-by-side and assess the likelihood of a successful merger . |
San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency |
345105 798111 |
|
5/23/03 |
|
Georgia-Pacific and Related Tax-Exempt Debt The recent rally in the corporate high yield market has left Georgia-Pacific (GP) paper in the dust: investor anxiety about asbestos litigation exposure, the weak economic environment, and management’s own failure to execute its much-publicized corporate separation strategy are the key reasons for the underperformance. There is, however, a light at the end of the tunnel: the soon-to-be-introduced bill to create a $100 billion asbestos liability trust fund. We review 2002 full year results and point relative values in GP-guaranteed tax-exempt debt. |
|
GP |
|
5/08/03 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group The Caritas Christ Group has been under serious financial pressure and the trend is not likely to abate in 2003. Moody's recently downgraded the credit to Baa3, while S&P is still conducting its annual review. Will the System retain its investment-grade rating? |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
|
5/05/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update We review Q1 results and the outlook for 2003 |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
|
5/05/03 |
|
UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update On April 29th, United’s unions agreed to wage concessions and work rule changes that could reduce costs by $2.5 billion a year. In spite of the improved short-term outlook, UAL has become the “tenant from hell” at many of its hub airports. The carrier has taken the position that special facilities (SF) bonds are unsecured debt and that it cannot make interest payments on unsecured debt in bankruptcy. We take a look at what this means for holders of specific special facilities debt, such as the Indianapolis Maintenance Center. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 13077YAL0 455254DA7 |
|
04/22/03 |
AZ |
Tucson Electric and related tax-exempt issues Tucson Electric and its parent, Unisource, have been limping along for years. Is there any improvement on the horizon? Are the pollution control bonds attractive relative values at this time? |
Pima Co. IDA Apache Co. IDA |
037433 721774
|
|
04/22/03 |
FL TX |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control TECO reported their earnings today and Moody's took the opportunity to downgrade the credit. Interestingly, Moody's rating is now higher than ours on Tampa Electric but much lower than ours on the parent's. Is this huge rating gap justified? |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal
|
432320 727524
|
|
04/14/03 |
FL LA |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control We update our ratings on TECO pollution control bonds based on the Company's recent financial update conference call on 4/11/03. |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal
|
432320 727524
|
|
03/28/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update TXU Energy returned to the tax-exempt market on 3/17/03 with about $220 MM in new issues. Has the company put last year’s European disaster behind it? We review in detail TXU’s restated 2002 results and select the best relative values among the newly-issued Series. |
Brazos River Authority |
106213GB1 106213FZ9 106213GA3 106213FY2
|
|
03/11/03 |
FL LA |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control This has become a familiar story in the utility sector this year: an otherwise well-run basic electric utility with a strong service area ventures into independent power production and ends up with unfortunate results. Is the worst over for TECO and its operating subisdiary Tampa Electric? We assign our own rating and assess the bonds' relative trading value. |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal |
432320 727524 |
|
02/28/03 |
|
Waste Management Inc. Update On 02/18/03, Waste Management Corp (WMI) released its 2002 results and its outlook for 2003. Moody’s suddenly discovered “the strength and stability of WMI’s cash generation” and put them on review for an upgrade. We review the Company’s full year results and discuss why we think it will take a long time before WMI can regain investment-grade status. |
|
WMI |
|
02/24/03 |
TX NJ |
Continental Airlines Corp. Special Facilities Bonds With the airline industry facing its greatest financial crisis ever, how does Continental Airlines stack up against other major carriers? Will it be among the ultimate survivors? We rate the bonds and examine in details the security features underlying two major tax-exempt Special Facilities bond issues for Houston and Newark Airports. |
City of Houston New Jersey EDA |
442348 64578C |
|
02/12/03 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update Recent events continue to be positive for the bondholders of Nevada Power and its parent Sierra Pacific, although its common shareholders might be singing a different tune. This week’s successful sale of a $300 million convertible issue should further strengthen bondholder protection, even as the equity took a 17% hit on potential dilution. We review yearend earnings and take another look at the relative trading value of the Clark County issue. |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
|
02/10/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update Since we put out our “Speculative Buy” recommendation on all TXU-backed tax-exempt debt in October, 2002, the bonds have outperformed strongly and we now view them as fully valued again. With the recent announcement of a stunning $4.2 Billion write-off from the European operations, the prospect for further short-term improvement appears limited. As a result, we have changed our recommendation on the bonds to a “Hold”. |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
|
02/03/03 |
CA. IN |
UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update The outlook for a successful re-emergence from bankruptcy on the part of UAL has become considerably more clouded in recent days. The surprise announcement of a larger-than-projected operating loss a few days ago has also fueled market anxiety over UAL’s prospects. As a result, UAL paper has started to trade down again. We revisit UAL’s short-term outlook and make trading recommendations on selected UAL Special Facilities issues: SF Airport, Indianapolis. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 13077YAL0 455254DA7 |
|
01/20/03 |
|
The Axios Income Investor, Jan 2003 SPECIAL REPORT: "Dividend Tax Reform and the Credit Markets" |
|
|
|
01/13/03 |
|
Update: Georgia-Pacific Once again, Street analysts were caught by surprise by GP's latest earnings warning, especially with regard to potential asbestos liabilities. While we have been much more pessimistic than the Street about GP's short-term financial outlook, we have also been less concerned with the asbestos problem. Find out why we still think there's good value in GP bonds right now. |
|
GP |
|
12/13/02 |
CA |
CA Dept of Water Resources, Power Supply Now that this record-breaking muni deal has come and gone, what are the factors that may drive the credit in the near future? Are the bonds still an attractive relative value? We take an objective look at this benchmark issue. |
State of California Dept of Water Resources |
13066Y |
|
12/02/02 |
CA CO IL IN |
UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update As we predicted, UAL bonds weakened again going into the debt repayment date of 12/02/02. UAL has elected to use the 10 day grace period on its public debt. We discuss all the potential scenarios for UAL going into the Machinists' vote on 12/05/02 and beyond. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) City of Chicago (O'Hare Airport) Ser1999 City and County of Denver, Ser1992A Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 167590DN5 249271EY9 455254DA7 |
|
11/20/02 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update We believe the 3rd quarter will be looked back upon as the beginning of NVP's financial recovery. However, since the bonds have reached and surpassed our target spread, we have also revised our trading recommendation to "Hold" from "Speculative Buy" |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
|
11/15/02 |
TX |
TXU Energy Update We report on final Q3 results for TXU Energy and explain why we view the tax-exempt put bonds as a particularly attractive relative value right now. |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority
|
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
|
11/08/02 |
CA CO IL IN |
UAL Corp. Update Given this week's announcements, is UAL out of the woods? We update our opinion of the credit and lay out various trading strategies designed to take advantage of the recent rebound in airline bond prices |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) City of Chicago (O'Hare Airport) Ser1999 City and County of Denver, Ser1992A Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 167590DN5 249271EY9 455254DA7 |
|
11/07/02 |
MI OH |
Waste Management Inc. We report on Q3 earnings, assess current relative valuation and discuss how WMI might potentially benefit from the recent election results. Concerns about the put feature are also raised. |
Michigan Strategic Fund Ohio Water Development Authority |
59469WAS8 67759AAS8 |
|
10/25/02 |
CA CO IL, IN |
UAL Corp. The potential bankruptcy of beleaguered UAL Corp.is a widely anticipated event. The purpose of our report is not to rehash UAL’s well-documented financial problems but rather to examine certain probable financial scenarios for the next few quarters and explore what trading strategies might be appropriate for current holders as well as potential speculative buyers of the carrier’s tax-exempt debt. Because security features differ significantly from issue to issue, our reports are issue-specific. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) City of Chicago (O'Hare Airport) Ser1999 City and County of Denver, Ser1992A Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A
|
13077LAR5 167590DN5 249271EY9 455254DA7 |
|
10/22/02 |
WV |
Weyerhaeuser WY 3rd quarter earnings were down 81%, yet the bonds remain fairly well bid. We update our opinion on the credit and assess current relative valuation. |
Braxton |
105753AE7 |
|
10/22/02 |
|
TXU Corp. Update Updates our credit opinion in response to TXU's decision to sell their UK operation to E.On Corp. on 10/21/02 |
|
TXU |
|
10/18/02 |
|
Research Notes: Georgia-Pacific, Sprint |
|
GP, FON |
|
10/18/02 |
VA |
Pocahontas Parkway Toll Road The revenue bonds for this recently opened toll road in the Richmond area are trading at an 8.35% tax-free yield, despite Baa3/BBB- ratings from the rating agencies. In this report, we discuss the credit's near-term outlook and assess its relative value merits based on our own independent rating) |
Pocahontas Parkway Assn |
73029MAH8 |
|
10/08/02 |
TX |
TXU Energy Since TXU
disclosed their European earnings problem on 10/9/02, their stock is down
70% |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
|
10/08/02 |
|
TXU Corp. Since TXU disclosed their earnings problem on 10/9/02, their stock is down 70% and their bonds are off 15-20 points. We recommended a "sell" on this credit back in August. This report updates our credit opinion and re-assesses the bonds' relative valuation at current levels. |
|
TXU |
|
9/25/02 |
FL |
Miami Mt Sinai Medical Center Has MSMC turned the corner after a disastrous 2001? We examine the Hospital’s near-term outlook, assign an independent rating to the Bonds and point out the best relative value among the different maturities. |
Miami Beach, FL Health Facilities Auth. |
593211BF1 593211BG9 593211BH7 |
|
9/16/02 |
|
Update: Georgia-Pacific |
|
GP |
|
8/15/02 |
NV |
Nevada Power With 2003Q2 results out of the way, company liquidity is improving and bankruptcy is no longer imminent. We re-examine our relative value recommendation on the bonds. |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
|
7/18/02 |
|
Research Notes: Georgia-Pacific, Sprint |
|
GP, FON |
|
|
|
STATE/CITY GOs |
|
|
|
09/19/03 |
NY |
New York City G.O. Update Now that the "trapping feature" for the TSASC issue has been triggered, New York City stands to lose a significant portion of its tobacco settlement revenues. The City is also embroiled in the MAC controversy. We update the outlook for the City in light of these recent developments. |
New York City |
64966B |
|
09/16/03 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update The latest twist in the recall campaign involves the potential postponement of the recall election to March. We look at how would this affect the market for CA bonds. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
09/08/03 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update Since our tactical "buy" recommendation in late July, spreads on CA G.O. bonds have tightened by about 30 basis points. With the recall campaign is in full swing, this report updates the fiscal situation and previews the heavy deficit financing calendar. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
08/14/03 |
NY |
State of New York G.O. We downgraded New York State last May to A+. What's happened to the credit since? We weigh in on the FY2004 budget and the current LGAC controversy. |
New York State |
Various |
|
07/28/03 |
CA |
State of California Strategy Update With the recent S&P downgrade to "BBB", California belongs now to the "high yield" category. We examine various trading strategies in light of the recall election and the upcoming deficit financings. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
07/11/03 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update We have downgraded CA G.O. bonds once again to BBB+ due to the ongoing budget impasse, which is compounded by the political uncertainty created by the recall initiative. Various trading strategies for CA bonds are discussed. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
05/12/03 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update California’s situation has worsened since mid-January, and the prospect of solving part of its short term problems with tobacco bonds has become dubious due to that sector’s woes. We have reduced our rating on California GO bonds from “single-A” to “A-minus.” |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
05/09/03 |
NY |
State of New York G.O. New York remains a “low double-A” credit in our view, but the recent behavior by the Governor and the Legislature stands to jeopardize that evaluation. The negative fundamentals--high tax and debt burdens plus a slow-growing, stagnant unbalanced economy that is vulnerable to relocation and consolidation—remain the same. What has changed is that the political system has lapsed into paralysis and seems prepared to repeat the irresponsible financial behaviors of a generation ago. |
New York State |
Various |
|
03/31/03 |
NY |
State of New York G.O. This is a good primer for traders of New York State paper as we outline the historical trading relationships among the various State agencies with NY State backing. Of course, we also take a look at the current budget situation and the credit outlook for the Empire State. |
New York State |
Various |
|
03/28/03 |
OR |
State of Oregon G.O. Oregon is considering enhancing its upcoming tobacco settlement issue with a "moral obligation" from the State. Can it pull it off? We take another look at current State finances and the outlook for the credit. |
State of Oregon |
68607L |
|
02/13/03 |
MA |
Massachusetts G.O. Like every other major State, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is struggling to resolve a severe budget deficit. What are the near-term prospects for the State? What are the relative values between local issues and State bonds? More importantly, how should one approach the upcoming $900 million new issue from the State? We assign an independent rating to Massachusetts and review various trading strategies. |
Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
575826 575827 |
|
01/14/03 |
NY |
New York City G.O. The City finally came to market this week with a relatively successful bond offering. We update the credit outlook and discuss why "this will not be 1975 all over again" and what constitutes attractive value for NYC paper. |
New York City |
64966B |
|
01/13/03 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update In December, the rating agencies finally followed our lead and downgraded the State. As a result, yield spreads on CA paper have widened out dramatically. What's the outlook for the State, given the Governor's recent budget message? More importantly, what's next for the CA muni market? We update our opinion and discuss various trading strategies. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
12/03/02 |
NY |
New York City G.O. Is NYC heading for fiscal disaster once again? We discuss why things are vastly different than a generation ago and why NYC bonds currently appear to be attractive relative values. |
New York City |
64966B |
|
11/19/02 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Update Now that the election and the record CA DWR deal have come and gone, has anything changed in the State's fiscal outlook? We update our opinion and discuss recent trading patterns for the G.O. bonds. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
|
7/15/02 |
CA |
State of California G.O. Given the State's huge $24Billion budget deficit, we assess the likelihood of a rating agency downgrade after the November election. Supply conditions in the CA market are also discussed, including the record-breaking CA Dept of Water issue slated for November. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |