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AXIOS ADVISORS, LLC INDEPENDENT CREDIT RESEARCH REPORT LIBRARY
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Go To: Tobacco Bonds |
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Updated: July 15, 2004 |
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Date |
State |
Credit |
Issuer |
CUSIP |
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TOBACCO |
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TICKER/CUSIP |
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05/12/04 |
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Tobacco Bond Strategy Update
Tobacco bond prices fell following a wholesale downgrading by Moody’s. Is current concern over the Freedom Holdings case justified, or do recent price declines represent an over reaction to the news? |
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04/23/04 |
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Tobacco Bond Strategy Update
Tobacco bond prices fell following a wholesale downgrading by Moody’s. Is current concern over the Freedom Holdings case justified, or do recent price declines represent an over reaction to the news? |
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09/30/03 |
CA |
State of California Enhanced Tobacco Settlement We have assigned a rating of “BBB” to the Series 2003B bonds with a “stable” trend, based primarily on the security enhancement provided by the “annual appropriation” pledge from the State of CA. Recent legal developments have also been more positive for the tobacco sector, which further strengthens the double-barreled nature of the security (at least until the next major litigation headline.) |
Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp. |
38122N |
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09/17/03 |
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Tobacco Bond Strategy Update The IL Supreme Court has, in a surprising move, reinstated the reduced $6.8 billion appeal bond in the Miles case and also agreed to hear Philip Morris' appeal of the case. This has sparked a significant rally in both tobacco and tobacco settlement bonds. Is this new euphoria warranted or is this just another gyration in this very volatile sector? |
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08/29/03 |
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Tobacco Bond Strategy Update Will PM USA do a strategic bankruptcy a la Texaco?. If so, what might be the implications for the tobacco bond sector? We look at various market scenarios and related investment strategies. |
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08/01/03 |
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British American Tobacco plc BAT is probably the best-positioned among the Big Four tobacco companies: we rate it the same as Altria, but without the constant threat of bankruptcy from management! At this time, the MSA is not a big factor to BAT, and vice-versa. However, a potential acquisition of R.J. Reynolds could change this picture dramatically... |
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BAT |
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07/15/03 |
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Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update The IL appeals court has reinstated the original $12 billion bonding requirement, but with a 30 day stay. Will PM USA do a strategic bankruptcy a la Texaco?. |
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MO |
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07/10/03 |
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Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update Legal uncertainties returned to the tobacco sector as an IL appeals court agreed to hear plaintiff's appeal of the trial court's reduction of PM USA's bond to $6.8 billion in the Price case. Will we see a repeat of the April debacle? |
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MO |
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06/13/03 |
NY |
New York State Tobacco Settlement New York State put its "moral obligation" pledge behind this tobacco issue. We examine the security structure and rate the bonds in the context of the State's G.O. credit. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
88880T |
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05/19/03 |
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R .J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Lacking MO's diversified revenue base, RJR has full exposure to the financial and legal woes of the domestic tobacco industry. Understanding its financial outlook is a critical step in determining the creditworthiness of the tobacco bond sector. |
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RJR |
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4/25/03 |
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SPECIAL REPORT: "What's Next For Tobacco Settlement Bonds?" It is fair to say that the fledgling tobacco settlement sector (indeed, the entire municipal market) dodged a huge bullet on April 14th when Judge Byron from Madison County, Illinois agreed to reduce Philip Morris’ appeal bond by 50% to $6 billion. The following day, State Treasurers across the nation breathed a collective sigh of relief when Philip Morris (MO) finally made its annual payment to the States under the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). Clearly, the events of the last two weeks marked a turning point for both the tobacco sector and for State and local government finances. In this report, we take a look ahead and try to figure out what the latest developments might mean for the sector. |
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4/15/03 |
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Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) Update It came down to the wire but it appears Altria has successfully dodged the appeal bond bullet. Yesterday (4/14), the company got the bond reduced to about $6 billion, with relatively little cash impact. We update our credit opinion in light of this latest development. |
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MO |
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03/24/03 |
VA |
Virginia Tobacco Settlement The tobacco bond sector ran into strong headwinds this week. Headline litigation risk has increased significantly. The $10.1 billion ruling against Altria in the Miles case drives the point home. How does this affect the outlook for the sector? How does this VA issue stack up against previous tobacco issues? |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
88880N |
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3/19/03 |
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Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) The Altria Group (MO), formerly Phillip Morris, is a study in contrasts. It is a very large, stable, consumer products business with strong profit margins and great credit strength. At the same time, the company’s tobacco business exposes it to significant short and long-term credit risks, primarily event risk from smoking and health related litigation. This week, the market was shocked by the recent re-filing of the 1999 Federal case seeking $289 billion from cigarette-makers. We assign a rating and review the outlook for this credit, as it relates to the Master Settlement Agreement with the States. |
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MO |
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03/06/03 |
WI |
Badger (Wisconsin) Tobacco Settlement Much has transpired in the tobacco arena since Wisconsin opened the supply floodgate last May. We update the credit and assess its relative value versus the more recent issues, particularly in light of the State's plan to tender the bonds. |
Badger, Tobacco Asset Sec. Corp. |
056559 |
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03/05/03 |
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SPECIAL REPORT: "Top Ten Myths About Tobacco Bonds" |
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03/01/03 |
NJ |
New Jersey Tobacco Settlement On the heels of the Golden State issue, record spreads were required by the market to absorb this second tobacco installment from New Jersey. If you've been keeping your powder dry in this sector, is this the time to participate? If you already own tobacco bonds, what is the outlook for the sector? We analyze the risks, assign an independent rating to the bonds and assess their relative value. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
888808 |
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01/17/03 |
CA |
State of California Tobacco Settlement The combination of credit worries, rising supply and tax reform uncertainty is weighing heavily on the muni market. As a result, this issue set a new high water mark in yield for a high grade name. For the individual investor, this should present an attractive income opportunity. As usual, we assign our own rating to the bonds and pick out the most attractive maturities. |
Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp. |
38122NA |
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10/28/02 |
WA |
Washington Tobacco Settlement The relentless
supply of tobacco bonds is starting to create indigestion in the muni
market. The State of WA has been forced to pay historically high rates for
its deal. For the individual investor, this should present an attractive
income opportunity. |
Tobacco Settlement Authority |
88880MAH4 88880MAJ0 |
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8/22/02 |
NJ |
New Jersey Tobacco Settlement This tobacco offering from the State of New Jersey set a new size record for the tobacco settlement sector. We analyze key credit features and point out which bond maturity represents the best value in our opinion. |
Tobacco Settlement Financing Corp. |
888808AR3 888808AS1 888808AT9 |
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7/08/02 |
CA |
Pooled Tobacco Settlement Even though all tobacco issues generally share the same credit features, local issues such as this one are subject to additional risk factors. We assign our own rating to the issue and pick out the best relative value among the various maturities. |
CA Statewide Financing Auth. |
130923APO |
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7/01/02 |
RI |
Rhode Island Tobacco Settlement While all tobacco-settlement issues at the State level share essentially the same credit characteristics, we demonstrate why a multi-tiered market will develop in this sector. |
Tobacco Settlement Fin. Corp. |
888809AA8 |
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5/21/02 |
WI |
Badger /Wisconsin Tobacco Settlement Even though all tobacco settlement issues essentially share the same credit features, we show why bonds issued by the so-called Previously Settled States should rank senior to all other tobacco deals. |
Badger, Tobacco Asset Sec. Corp. |
056559AJ6 |
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SPECIAL PURPOSE/CORPORATE BACKEDCORPORA |
TICKER/CUSIP |
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05/11/04 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System Update We comment on Hillcrest’s agreement to merge with Ardent Health Services, a deal that would result in the repurchase of Hillcrest’s outstanding bonds at par. |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
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05/10/04 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System Update Bonds are up about 10 points since our October “buy” call. The rating agencies are unmoved by some signs of internal financial improvement and potentially positive external events. We reiterate our “speculative buy” recommendation. |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
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04/30/04 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group Update
Axios recommended purchase of the bonds at a spread of 245 in September 2003. In light of FY2003 and Q1 FY2004 results, and a rally in the bonds, we review the Grouc’s prospects. Is there any more value in the bonds |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
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04/08/04 |
FL |
Miami Mt Sinai Medical Center Update
What’s changed since our June 2003 credit quality upgrade and “buy” recommendation? Plenty. We revisit Mt. Sinai as it prepares for a major debt refunding and faces an SEC investigation. |
Miami Beach, FL Health Facilities Auth. |
593211BF1 593211BG9 593211BH7 |
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03/24/04 |
CA |
San Joaquin & Foothill/Eastern Toll Roads With ratings heading south and the proposed merger of these two projects still up in the air, we update our analysis of the financial and operating performance of the toll roads and review prospects for a successful merger. |
San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency |
345105
798111 |
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03/15/04 |
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Georgia-Pacific and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Update
The bonds have reached our target spread. We note potential short-term positives, and comment on rating agency reaction to GP’s deleveraging efforts. |
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GP |
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02/18/04 |
VA |
Pocahontas Parkway Toll Road Update Bond spreads continued to widen for a few months after we initiated coverage in October 2002, but have tightened significantly over the past year. Traffic and revenue have not met expectations. We downgrade our independent credit rating, and comment on the bonds’ value in light of the current market enthusiasm. |
Pocahontas Parkway Assn |
73029MAH8 |
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02/11/04 |
KY AL |
Weyerhaeuser Update
WY Q4 2003 earnings disappointed the street. We affirm our BBB- rating on senior unsecured debt is affirmed, comment on potential rating agency action, and update our relative value opinion |
Perry County, KY
Camden, AL IDB |
714562AC
132661AB |
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02/06/04 |
FL LA |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control Update We update our view of the bonds following the company’s announcement that it intends to sell off merchant power plants and refocus on its core business. |
Hillsborough Co., FL IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal |
432320 727524 |
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02/04/04 |
CA |
CA Dept of Water Resources, Power Supply Update
We maintain our high BBB rating, comment on market action since issuance and identify spreads that mark attractive buy and sell points. |
State of California Dept of Water Resources |
13066Y |
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01/22/04 |
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Continental Airlines Corp. and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Update
Following CAL's Q4 earnings report, we discuss the company’s earnings prospects. Is it still a “hold”? |
City of Houston
New Jersey EDA |
442348
64578C |
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10/15/03 |
OK |
Hillcrest HealthCare System The Hillcrest HealthCare System has had a troubled financial history over the past five years. After the Series 1999 came to market in March 1999 as a Baa2/BBB+ credit, the System’s financial results took a nosedive from 1999 to 2001. This culminated in a going concern qualification in the 2001 audit. In the process, the rating agencies also took their ratings all the way down to the “B” level. Fortunately, recent financials point to some degree of stabilization and, hopefully, to the beginning of a turnaround. Is there value in the bonds currently? |
Oklahoma Dev. Fin. Authority |
678908 |
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09/26/03 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group Axios rated Caritas Christi (CC) “BBB-“ with a “negative” outlook in May because of challenges facing the Obligated Group, the region and healthcare providers generally. At the time, we felt there was a real potential for the credit to slip down to below-investment grade. That threat has now been dissipated somewhat. Is the credit still a good relative value? |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
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09/19/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update TXU is in the market again with a new $148 MM remarketing. We have revised the credit outlook to "positive" from "stable" in light of the recent financial stabilization. |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
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09/03/03 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update Nevada Power and its parent Sierra Pacific lost the Enron case last week (8/28/03). Will this lead to another bankruptcy threat, similar to what happened last year? |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
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08/08/03 |
SC TX |
Celanese A.G. and Related Tax-Exempt Debt Celanese’s (CZ) credit quality benefits from its leadership position in major product lines, its geographic and product diversity, and management’s willingness to limit debt to a level that supports investment grade credit ratings. Yet, these strengths are offset by uncertainty regarding the economic outlook for North America and Western Europe and CZ’s weak earning power. We examine the credit outlook and assess the relative attractiveness of tax-exempt issues backed by CZ. |
York County, SC Bay City, TX |
986460AS 735003AA |
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08/08/03 |
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UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update We review UAL's Q2 results and the progress of its reorganization efforts. We also update in details the Special Facilities bonds issued for Denver, Indianapolis and Chicago and assess their current relative values. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 13077YAL0 455254DA7 |
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07/28/03 |
CA |
State of California Strategy Update With the recent S&P downgrade to "BBB", California belongs now to the "high yield" category. We examine various trading strategies in light of the recall election and the upcoming deficit financings. |
State of California |
13062NG6 |
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07/24/03 |
FL TX |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control Our rating differential between TECO and Tampa Electric continues to be tighter than for the rating agencies. In other words, we rate TECO’s debt higher and Tampa Electric’s debt lower than most of the rating agencies. At this time, there is a real possibility S&P will over-react to the slow pace of asset sales and downgrade Tampa Electric’s senior unsecured debt to low BBB or even possibly to below-investment grade. We update our opinion on the Hillsborough, FL and Plaquemines, LA issues. |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal
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432320 727524
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07/17/03 |
TX NJ |
Continental Airlines Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Following CAL's Q2 earnings report, we re-affirm the credit as "B"/Stable and continue to recommend it as our preferred "Speculative Buy" in this very depressed industry. |
City of Houston New Jersey EDA |
442348 64578C |
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07/08/03 |
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Weyerhaeuser We continue to rate WY's senior unsecured debt "BBB-" but have changed the outlook from "Stable" to "Negative", reflecting weaker than expected economic and industry conditions since the Willamette acquisition. |
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WY |
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07/01/03 |
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Georgia-Pacific: Asbestos Fund Legislation Update The prospect for passage of Federal asbestos legislation improved significantly last week. We bring you up-to-date on the latest details and what they might mean for companies such as GP. |
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GP |
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06/24/03 |
NV |
Nevada Power Update Nevada Power and its parent Sierra Pacific continue to face both near-term and longer-term financial and regulatory challenges. We review full-year 2002 financials and update the credit outlook for the next 2 quarters, particularly in light of the upcoming FERC decision on the Western states power crisis. |
Clark County |
181004AZ5 |
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06/17/03 |
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The Axios Income Investor, May-June 2003 Topics covered: Market outlook; Relative value of municipals; The new "yield" sectors: pension bonds and tobacco bonds; Corporate-backed munis: a tax-efficient back door into the corporate bond market; Best and worst relative values. |
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06/16/03 |
FL |
Miami Mt Sinai Medical Center Update We have upgraded our rating on the 2001 Series A to “BB+” from “BB-“ with a ”stable” trend, based on full year results for 2002. The new management team, led by CEO Steve Sonenreich and CFO Alex Mendez, has largely been successful in stabilizing the financial operations of Mt Sinai Medical Center (MSMC). What challenges still lay ahead? Are the bonds still a good value, given their dramatic outperformance since our initial recommendation last September? |
Miami Beach, FL Health Facilities Auth. |
593211BF1 593211BG9 593211BH7 |
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06/04/03 |
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Calpine Corp. As we predicted in our initial report dated 05/06/03, Calpine’s unsecured paper peaked in early May and have consistently fallen since. The recent downgrade by S&P from “B+” to “CCC+” , coupled with the Company’s need to successfully renegotiate $1 billion of credit lines, probably contributed to the recent price weakness. Is the worst over for Calpine? |
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CPN |
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5/30/03 |
CA |
San Joaquin & Foothill/Eastern Toll Roads With the recent downgrade by S&P to "BB", the San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency has officially joined the list of many other troubled toll roads around the country. Will the proposed merger with the marginally more successful Foothill/Eastern Agency bail out San Joaquin? We review both San Joaquin and Foothill credits side-by-side and assess the likelihood of a successful merger . |
San Joaquin Transportation Corridor Agency Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency |
345105 798111 |
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5/23/03 |
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Georgia-Pacific and Related Tax-Exempt Debt The recent rally in the corporate high yield market has left Georgia-Pacific (GP) paper in the dust: investor anxiety about asbestos litigation exposure, the weak economic environment, and management’s own failure to execute its much-publicized corporate separation strategy are the key reasons for the underperformance. There is, however, a light at the end of the tunnel: the soon-to-be-introduced bill to create a $100 billion asbestos liability trust fund. We review 2002 full year results and point relative values in GP-guaranteed tax-exempt debt. |
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GP |
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5/08/03 |
MA |
Caritas Christi Obligated Group The Caritas Christ Group has been under serious financial pressure and the trend is not likely to abate in 2003. Moody's recently downgraded the credit to Baa3, while S&P is still conducting its annual review. Will the System retain its investment-grade rating? |
Mass HEFA |
57585K |
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5/05/03 |
TX |
TXU Energy and related tax-exempt issues: Update We review Q1 results and the outlook for 2003 |
Brazos River Authority Sabine River Authority |
106213FG1 106213FH9 785652BW7 |
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5/05/03 |
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UAL Corp. Special Facilities Bonds Update On April 29th, United’s unions agreed to wage concessions and work rule changes that could reduce costs by $2.5 billion a year. In spite of the improved short-term outlook, UAL has become the “tenant from hell” at many of its hub airports. The carrier has taken the position that special facilities (SF) bonds are unsecured debt and that it cannot make interest payments on unsecured debt in bankruptcy. We take a look at what this means for holders of specific special facilities debt, such as the Indianapolis Maintenance Center. |
CA Statewide Comm. Dev. Auth. Ser1997A & Ser2000A (San Francisco Airport) Indianapolis Airport Authority, Ser1995A |
13077LAR5 13077YAL0 455254DA7 |
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04/22/03 |
AZ |
Tucson Electric and related tax-exempt issues Tucson Electric and its parent, Unisource, have been limping along for years. Is there any improvement on the horizon? Are the pollution control bonds attractive relative values at this time? |
Pima Co. IDA Apache Co. IDA |
037433 721774
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04/22/03 |
FL TX |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control TECO reported their earnings today and Moody's took the opportunity to downgrade the credit. Interestingly, Moody's rating is now higher than ours on Tampa Electric but much lower than ours on the parent's. Is this huge rating gap justified? |
Hillsborough Co. IDA Plaquemines LA Port, Harbor & Terminal
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432320 727524
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04/14/03 |
FL LA |
TECO Energy/Tampa Electric Pollution Control We update our ratings on TECO pollution control bonds based on the Company's recent financial update conference call on 4/11/03. |